US experience fighting Iran offers lessons for China, experts say
US Experience in Conflict with Iran Offers Strategic Insights for China, Experts Highlight
US experience fighting Iran offers lessons – The recent conflict between the United States and Iran, now in its third month, has emerged as a critical case study for China. Observers from across the globe are analyzing how Washington’s military strategies and technological applications in the Persian Gulf could inform Beijing’s approach to potential future confrontations with the US. The battle has underscored the importance of understanding the adversary’s capabilities and the dynamic nature of modern warfare. While China has made significant strides in its military modernization, experts warn that the US campaign in Iran highlights vulnerabilities that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) must address to ensure dominance in any potential conflict.
Defensive Gaps and Technological Challenges
China’s military analysts are drawing attention to the lessons learned from Iran’s ability to bypass US defensive systems. A former air force colonel, Fu Qianshao, emphasized that the PLA must remain vigilant about its defensive shortcomings. “Iran has demonstrated effective ways to circumvent US anti-missile networks, such as the Patriot and THAAD systems,” Fu said in a recent interview with CNN. “This serves as a reminder that even the most advanced defenses can be outmaneuvered in real-time combat.”
“We need to devote significant efforts to identify weaknesses in our defensive side to ensure we remain invincible in future wars,” Fu told CNN.
Despite China’s rapid expansion in offensive capabilities, its defensive infrastructure still faces challenges. The US’s ability to deploy sophisticated weaponry, including fifth-generation stealth fighters and long-range bombers, while also leveraging cost-effective guided munitions, has shown the versatility of modern combat strategies. Analysts note that Iran’s use of low-cost Shahed drones and ballistic missiles proved effective in targeting US forces, despite the latter’s technological superiority. This has prompted questions about whether China’s current defensive systems are sufficiently robust to counter similar threats in a conflict with the US.
Offensive Power and Hypersonic Advancements
China’s military has been actively enhancing its offensive firepower, particularly through the integration of hypersonic glide vehicles. These advanced missiles, capable of evading traditional interception systems, have been deployed alongside platforms that can launch them, giving the PLA a strategic edge in long-range strikes. The PLA Air Force, for instance, has been accelerating the production of fifth-generation stealth fighters, with estimates suggesting it will operate approximately 1,000 J-20 jets in precision strike scenarios. This number is comparable to the US’s F-35 fleet, according to the British think tank RUSI.
China is also developing its own long-range stealth bomber, akin to the US’s B-2 and B-21 models. This underscores the nation’s ambition to match American capabilities in both air and naval domains. However, the focus on offensive strength has not entirely addressed the need for defensive preparedness, as the Iran conflict illustrates. The US’s reliance on a combination of high-tech and affordable weaponry in the Gulf has created a model that China must adapt to in its own strategic planning.
Taiwan as a Potential Flashpoint
While the Iran conflict provides immediate lessons, its implications extend to broader US-China tensions, particularly in the Taiwan Strait. Analysts suggest that Taiwan could become a critical battleground in any future confrontation, given its strategic location and the growing disparity in military technology between the two sides. The Communist Party of China has consistently asserted its resolve to unify Taiwan, even though it has not yet achieved de facto control. Chinese President Xi Jinping has not ruled out the use of military force to accomplish this goal.
Experts believe China’s military is now equipped to challenge the US in both high-tech precision strikes and large-scale drone operations. “China has assembled an arsenal that can match the US in advanced weaponry and outpace it in drone warfare,” stated Chieh Chung, an associate research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research. This dual capability raises concerns about the outcome of a potential conflict, as the US may find itself defending against Chinese advances rather than launching attacks.
Drones and the Future of Warfare
The role of drones in the Iran conflict has highlighted their transformative impact on modern warfare. Iran’s use of Shahed drones, which are relatively inexpensive to produce, has been pivotal in sustaining its military operations. Analysts point out that the sheer volume of these unmanned systems, combined with their affordability, could create a formidable force in any conflict. According to a 2025 report by the analytical platform War on the Rocks, Chinese manufacturers are capable of producing one billion weaponized drones annually within a year. This production capacity gives China a significant advantage in a potential standoff with the US.
However, Taiwan’s current ability to counter such drone swarms remains limited. A government watchdog recently criticized the island’s drone defense systems as “ineffective,” citing risks to critical infrastructure and military installations. This has spurred calls for increased investment in counter-drone technologies. Gene Su, managing director of Taiwan’s leading drone manufacturer Thunder Tiger, argued that mass production is essential. “We need to produce continuously, day and night, to counter our enemies,” he said. Su’s remarks reflect a growing recognition that Taiwan must strengthen its defensive capabilities to match China’s offensive surge.
US Adaptation and the Pacific Theater
The US, too, is reevaluating its approach in the Pacific, acknowledging that it may face a shift in its traditional role as the aggressor. Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, highlighted the changing nature of warfare during a Senate hearing in April. “Drones have made the offensive side more costly, as they enable sustained attacks with minimal risk to personnel,” he noted. This insight aligns with the broader assessment that the Iran conflict has demonstrated the importance of balancing offensive and defensive strategies.
As the US and China continue to build their military capabilities, the lessons from the Iran campaign are becoming increasingly relevant. The ability of Iran to challenge US superiority with primitive technology suggests that even nations with less advanced forces can disrupt major military operations. For China, this serves as both an opportunity and a warning: while its offensive capabilities are growing, the success of any future conflict will depend on its capacity to protect key infrastructure and adapt to evolving threats. The Taiwan Strait, therefore, stands as a microcosm of this larger strategic equation, where the interplay of technology, numbers, and tactical flexibility could determine the outcome of a prolonged confrontation.
In summary, the US experience in the Iran conflict offers China a chance to refine its military strategies, emphasizing the need for both offensive readiness and defensive resilience. As the global balance of power shifts, the lessons from the Gulf will likely shape how Beijing and Washington prepare for their next major showdown. Whether it’s a battle for Taiwan or a broader regional conflict, the integration of drones, hypersonic weapons, and advanced airpower will remain central to both nations’ military doctrines. The path forward for China will depend on how effectively it can translate these lessons into actionable plans, ensuring it remains prepared for any scenario that could arise in the Pacific theater.