Russian Gas Imports Rise Despite EU Phase-Out
Russian gas imports rise despite EU phase – A recent analysis has uncovered a notable uptick in Russian gas deliveries to the European Union during the early months of 2026, even as the bloc initiates a historic transition away from relying on Russian natural gas. The report, released by the EU’s energy regulators, highlights that the demand for Russian gas has not only persisted but also grown, challenging the assumption that the EU’s planned sanctions would immediately curb imports. This trend is particularly evident in the context of the EU’s decision to phase out Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) by early 2027, though certain countries have been granted temporary exceptions.
EU’s Energy Policy Shift
The European Union has set a clear timeline for reducing its dependence on Russian energy, with a comprehensive ban on Russian LNG imports beginning in March 2026. This measure aims to cut ties with Moscow’s energy exports, which have been a focal point of geopolitical tensions since the invasion of Ukraine. However, the ban does not apply universally; Hungary and Slovakia have been allowed to continue receiving Russian pipeline gas under specific conditions. These exceptions are designed to address potential supply disruptions, especially since both nations are landlocked and lack direct access to alternative sources via maritime routes.
According to the findings from the EU’s Agency for Energy Regulators (ACER), the increase in Russian gas imports is primarily due to companies accelerating their deliveries under existing contracts before stricter restrictions take effect. The report notes that pipeline gas shipments rose by 7 percent compared to the previous year, while LNG imports surged by 11 percent. This growth was even more pronounced after the ban was implemented, with LNG volumes increasing by 17 percent against the same period in 2025. The agency emphasizes that these figures do not signal a reversal of EU policy but rather a strategic adjustment in the face of global energy market volatility.
Market Dynamics and Strategic Adjustments
ACER’s report, published on Wednesday, outlines that the current surge in Russian gas imports is linked to the flexibility afforded by existing contractual agreements. The agency states that deliveries under these contracts account for a significant portion of the EU’s annual supply capacity, with authorised volumes ranging between 45 and 55 billion cubic metres (bcm). This figure is much lower than the 150-157 bcm that Moscow previously exported to the EU before the conflict in Ukraine. Despite the overall decline, Hungary, Slovakia, and Greece continue to maintain a higher level of Russian gas dependency, particularly through the TurkStream pipeline, which connects Russia to the Black Sea.
ACER argues that the observed rise in imports reflects market participants’ efforts to optimise supply chains amid uncertainties. The agency highlights that disruptions in global LNG trade—triggered by conflicts in the Middle East—have forced European importers to rely more heavily on available sources, including Russian gas. Additionally, the prohibition on transshipping Russian LNG through the EU to other destinations has inadvertently kept some supplies within the bloc, contributing to the increase. These factors suggest that the EU’s energy transition is not yet fully underway, but rather a gradual process influenced by both political and economic considerations.
Analyst Perspectives and Market Reactions
Ronald Pinto, an LNG analyst at the market intelligence firm Kpler, supports ACER’s assessment, noting that Russian gas imports into the EU reached record levels in April and May. “European market participants have increasingly turned to existing contractual volumes to mitigate the risk of supply interruptions,” Pinto explained to Euronews. “The flexibility within these agreements has allowed them to maintain a steady flow of energy even as new restrictions take shape.”
“European market participants have increasingly turned to existing contractual volumes to mitigate the risk of supply interruptions.”
Pinto also pointed out a slight decline in Russian pipeline gas imports following maintenance work in early June. This dip, he suggested, could indicate that energy companies are beginning to adjust their strategies in anticipation of the 2027 deadline. “The 17 June ban on short-term pipeline gas contracts may have prompted market players to reduce their exposure to Russian supplies,” the analyst added. His remarks underscore the complex interplay between supply constraints and the EU’s long-term goals of energy independence.
Regional Variations and Future Challenges
While the EU as a whole has reduced its reliance on Russian gas, the impact varies significantly across member states. Most countries have drastically cut imports since the war began, but Hungary, Slovakia, and Greece remain notable exceptions. The report reveals that, in 2024, Hungary and Slovakia sourced approximately 70–80 percent of their gas from Russia, while Greece imported around 50–55 percent of its supply via the same route. These nations face a unique challenge in transitioning to alternative energy sources before the 2027 deadline, as they lack direct access to LNG terminals and depend heavily on the TurkStream pipeline for their gas needs.
ACER’s findings suggest that the EU’s energy dependency on Russia is becoming more concentrated in specific regions. The agency states that the remaining reliance on Russian gas is unevenly distributed, with a small number of countries continuing to draw heavily from Moscow’s resources. This situation has sparked debates about the effectiveness of the EU’s sanctions and the potential for supply chain bottlenecks in Central Europe. Energy regulators warn that ensuring sufficient infrastructure to bring in alternative supplies—such as renewable energy or LNG from other regions—will be critical in meeting the 2027 phase-out targets.
The report also addresses concerns about the EU’s long-term energy strategy. ACER asserts that the rise in Russian gas imports does not imply a failure of sanctions or a shift back toward dependence. Instead, it highlights the adaptability of energy markets in the face of global disruptions. The agency points to the war between Israel and Iran, which disrupted Middle Eastern LNG trade, as a key factor in Europe’s temporary reliance on Russian gas. This context reinforces the idea that the EU’s energy transition is a multifaceted process shaped by both geopolitical events and economic pragmatism.
Looking ahead, ACER’s report underscores the need for continued investment in infrastructure and alternative energy sources. The agency notes that the primary challenge moving forward is not the overall availability of gas but the capacity to deliver non-Russian supplies to Central Europe. This includes expanding LNG terminals, improving pipeline networks, and diversifying energy partnerships. While the EU has made progress in reducing its energy dependence, the persistence of Russian gas imports in 2026 serves as a reminder of the complexities involved in achieving complete independence.
Conclusion and Policy Implications
ACER concludes that Europe’s energy landscape is evolving, with the phase-out of Russian gas imports acting as a catalyst for strategic adjustments. The report highlights that while the bloc’s overall reliance on Russian energy has decreased, certain countries have not yet fully aligned with this trend. The agency’s analysis provides a nuanced view of the situation, acknowledging both the resilience of Russian gas imports and the EU’s commitment to long-term energy security. As the 2027 deadline approaches, the success of the transition will depend on the ability of member states to implement alternative energy solutions and maintain market stability.
The data presented in the report also raises questions about the timing of the phase-out. With LNG imports already reaching unprecedented levels, there is a risk that the EU may experience short-term fluctuations in its energy supply. However, ACER remains optimistic, stating that the gradual expiration of older contracts will help mitigate these risks. The agency’s conclusion reinforces the importance of monitoring energy flows and adapting policies to address emerging challenges. As the EU navigates this transition, the balance between immediate energy needs and long-term strategic goals will remain a central focus of its energy policy.
