Oil, Cod, Kirill: Friction Points Emerge in New EU Sanctions Against Russia
Oil cod Kirill – The European Union’s 21st round of sanctions targeting Russia has stalled, with diverging views among member states creating hurdles for agreement. A key obstacle is the looming threat of a Bulgarian veto, which could disrupt the process of achieving unanimous support. Diplomats reported that ambassadors convened on Friday to debate a revised version of the proposal submitted by the European Commission earlier this month. Despite efforts to find common ground, no consensus has emerged, leaving the negotiations in a deadlock. With time running out, Brussels faces a critical deadline—July 15—to finalize the package or risk an automatic adjustment to the price cap on Russian seaborne oil. This cap, intended to stay 15 percent below the average market rate every six months, has become a focal point of contention.
Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the price of Urals crude—a major Russian oil export—has surged, prompting concerns that the cap would be lowered. To prevent this, the Commission has suggested maintaining the $44 per barrel limit until January 2027. However, this decision has sparked debates over whether to delay the review or impose a new fixed cap. The revised text aims to address these issues, but the lack of agreement highlights the complexity of the EU’s approach. Other measures, such as restrictions on LNG tankers and fish imports, have also raised eyebrows, as they target industries that some countries depend on for economic stability.
While the oil price cap remains a central issue, the broader sanctions package has drawn scrutiny for its potential economic consequences. For instance, Bulgaria has expressed reservations about the proposed restrictions on Russian fish imports, which it has not yet sanctioned. This is partly because several EU nations, including Germany, France, Poland, and the Netherlands, rely heavily on Russian cod and pollack. A separate clause, targeting Russian soldiers involved in the Ukraine invasion, has also faced pushback from France and Italy. Their concerns underscore the delicate balance the EU must strike between punitive measures and the practical needs of its member states.
Bulgaria’s Role in the Standoff
Bulgaria, under its new government, has emerged as a pivotal player in the negotiation process. Prime Minister Rumen Radev has openly opposed the inclusion of Patriarch Kirill, head of Russia’s Orthodox Church, in the sanctions list. Kirill is accused of promoting revisionist narratives to justify Russia’s war in Ukraine. The proposed sanctions would impose a travel ban and asset freeze on him, but Radev argues that excluding him is crucial to maintaining political cohesion. This stance echoes a similar position taken by Hungary in 2022, when its then-leader Viktor Orbán blocked an earlier attempt to sanction Kirill, citing religious freedom as a key concern.
“We will not allow the sanctions package to pass in this form. We have a vote, and we will use it,” said Radev last week, emphasizing Bulgaria’s determination to block the measure.
Radev’s objections are not limited to Kirill. He has also pushed to exclude Vagit Alekperov, the billionaire founder of Lukoil, from the sanctions. Alekperov stepped down as president in 2022 amid intense international pressure but continues to hold significant shares in the Russian energy giant. The Bulgarian leader warns that sanctioning Alekperov could backfire, as Lukoil has filed a €3 billion compensation claim against the state’s takeover of the Neftohim Burgas refinery. This refinery, now under the control of a special administrator since November 2025, no longer uses Russian oil, but the dispute over Alekperov’s role has added another layer of complexity.
Bulgaria’s resistance has deepened the divide among EU nations. The country’s Orthodox Church, though administratively independent from its Russian counterpart, shares cultural and historical ties with the Russian Orthodox Church. This connection has fueled Radev’s argument that sanctioning Kirill could strain Bulgaria’s relationships within the bloc. The issue resurfaced in May when the new Hungarian government signaled openness to targeting Kirill, only for Radev to assert his opposition. The Bulgarian leader’s intervention has forced the Commission to reconsider its initial draft, which had already been “watered down” by compromises to address differing national interests.
The Clock is Ticking
The deadline for a final decision adds urgency to the negotiations. Without a resolution by July 15, the price cap on Russian oil could be adjusted, potentially easing the economic pressure on Moscow. This scenario would undermine the EU’s strategy to limit Russia’s energy revenue, a cornerstone of the sanctions. The Commission’s revised proposal now includes options to either delay the cap review or implement a new fixed limit, but these adjustments have not silenced the debate. Diplomats noted that the decision to keep the cap at $44 per barrel is a calculated move to prevent a potential upward revision, though it may not satisfy all parties.
Meanwhile, the proposed restrictions on LNG tankers have sparked questions about their effectiveness. While the EU aims to curb Russia’s oil exports, the LNG ban could impact countries reliant on this energy source. Similarly, the fish import restrictions, though not yet enforced, have been a point of contention, as Bulgaria and other nations fear they could harm local supply chains. These measures reflect the EU’s broader goal of diversifying its energy and food sources, but their implementation has exposed vulnerabilities in the bloc’s unity.
The negotiations are now set to extend into the Irish presidency of the EU Council, which begins on July 1. Ireland’s ambassador, Aingeal O’Donoghue, has expressed confidence in meeting the July 15 deadline, highlighting the EU’s commitment to resolving the issue. “As with all the packages, there is an exercise of listening to member states, trying to understand their real bottom line, and then seeing if it’s possible to come to compromises,” O’Donoghue stated during a press conference. This sentiment underscores the diplomatic effort required to balance the competing priorities of the 27 member states.
Despite the challenges, the EU remains focused on maintaining its sanctions framework. The revised package aims to address the most pressing concerns while preserving the overall intent of targeting Russia’s economy. However, the persistence of friction points suggests that the process will not be easy. The outcome of these negotiations will shape the next phase of the EU’s strategy against Russia, influencing both economic pressures and political dynamics within the bloc.
As the talks continue, the interplay between economic goals and national interests will remain central. The EU’s ability to navigate these complexities will determine whether the sanctions package can be finalized in time or if it will face further delays. With the clock ticking and the stakes high, the path forward remains uncertain, but the determination to act is clear.
