Spain Preparing for Intense Heatwave: Temperatures Could Reach 44ºC
Spain braces for heatwave – Spain is set to face another severe heatwave in the early part of July 2026, with forecasts indicating temperatures could soar to 44ºC by Tuesday. The State Meteorological Agency, known as AEMET, issued an initial alert on Friday, signaling the arrival of the second summer heatwave. This weather phenomenon is expected to begin this Sunday and persist for at least three days, creating a significant challenge for the country’s infrastructure, health systems, and natural ecosystems.
Temperature Projections and Regional Impacts
AEMET’s data outlines the potential effects of the heatwave across different regions. On Monday, temperatures are projected to climb to 38–40ºC in the Minho valley and 37–39ºC in the interior of A Coruña. Meanwhile, the south-western quadrant of the mainland will see widespread maximums of 39–41ºC, with river valleys in that region possibly hitting 42ºC. The southern plateau, Ebro valley, and north-eastern depressions are also anticipated to experience highs between 37–40ºC. However, the most extreme conditions are expected to peak on Monday, not Tuesday, as the agency highlights a key detail in its forecast.
“Monday will mark the height of this heatwave episode, with temperatures in the eastern Cantabrian area reaching unprecedented levels,” said AEMET. “While Tuesday may see a slight rise, it could complicate existing wildfire efforts in the Bisbal d’Empordá region.”
By Tuesday, the heatwave is projected to extend further, with some areas possibly exceeding 44ºC. This development could have serious implications, particularly in regions already battling wildfires. The arrival of maritime air is anticipated to provide some relief along the western coast of Galicia, where temperatures are expected to drop as the coastal breeze begins to moderate the heat.
Uncertainty with the Arrival of a “Dana”
The weather situation remains dynamic, especially on Wednesday, as the potential influence of a “dana”—an isolated upper-level depression—introduces uncertainty. While the most likely scenario suggests temperatures will stay above 39–40ºC in the south-west, southern plateau, Ebro valley, and inland areas of the south-east, the presence of this atmospheric system could alter the pattern. AEMET has warned that this “dana” might bring additional heat to the eastern Cantabrian coast and spread to the northern plateau, though the extent of its impact is yet to be determined.
As the heatwave progresses, AEMET has activated specific alert levels. On Saturday, the agency issued an orange alert for Seville, Huelva, and Jaén, with temperatures likely to reach 40ºC in several districts. A yellow alert was also declared for Cádiz and Granada, though Almería remains outside these warnings for now. Along the Cádiz coastline, an extra caution is advised due to gusts of Levante wind, which could exacerbate fire risks in the Strait of Gibraltar region.
Heatwave Risk Across the Country
AEMET’s updated map reveals that the highest risk zones are concentrated in the south-western quadrant of the mainland, the Guadiana and Guadalquivir valleys, the Ebro valley, and north-eastern depressions. These areas are expected to experience the most intense heat, although the phenomenon will also impact inland Galicia, the southern plateau, and the Balearic Islands. In Mallorca, temperatures are forecast to range between 36ºC and 38ºC, which, while not as extreme as other regions, still pose challenges for residents.
The Canary Islands, traditionally less affected by mainland heatwaves, are now under scrutiny. The General Directorate of Emergencies of the Canary Islands government has declared a forest-fire risk alert for Gran Canaria and Tenerife starting this Sunday. By Tuesday, the entire eastern province of Gran Canaria could move to an orange alert, while the rest of the islands remain on yellow. This shift underscores the widespread nature of the heatwave, even reaching areas that are typically shielded by maritime influences.
Impact of Previous Heatwaves and Criteria for Classification
This is not the first heatwave of the summer, and the effects of the earlier episode are still being felt. In June, a previous heatwave caused nearly 900 deaths, according to the Ministry of Health’s MoMo monitoring system. AEMET warned of the arrival of the second heatwave shortly after the first began to subside, emphasizing the country’s ongoing struggle with extreme weather conditions.
“To be classified as a heatwave, temperatures must exceed the 95th percentile for at least three consecutive days and affect more than 10% of the territory,” explained AEMET officials. “Current models suggest all three criteria are likely to be met, making this event a formal heatwave.”
The heatwave’s effects are not limited to daytime temperatures. Minimum temperatures are expected to remain between 20–26ºC, with peaks of 27–28ºC, leading to tropical nights across much of the country. Public health specialists have pointed out that these extended periods of warmth during the night are as critical as daytime highs, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Wildfire Risk and Community Preparedness
The wildfire risk has intensified in response to the heatwave, with the INFOCA plan in Andalusia currently active at a pre-alert level. In the Canary Islands, the declaration of forest-fire risk is now tied to the heatwave warnings, highlighting the interconnectedness of weather patterns and emergency management. The public is being urged to take preventive measures, including reducing outdoor activities during peak hours, staying hydrated, and checking on neighbors who may be at higher risk.
As the heatwave continues, the challenges for Spain’s communities will grow. The dynamic nature of AEMET’s forecasts means that the alert levels for provinces are subject to change, with the agency continuously updating its data based on evolving models. This fluidity requires residents and authorities to remain vigilant and adaptable in their responses.
The combination of extreme temperatures, prolonged heat, and the risk of wildfires is creating a perfect storm of challenges for Spain. While the heatwave is expected to subside by Thursday, its lingering effects will be felt for several days. The country is now in a critical phase, where the focus must remain on mitigating risks and supporting those most affected by the heat.
With the prospect of 44ºC temperatures in some regions, the heatwave is a stark reminder of the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. As AEMET continues to monitor the situation, the public is advised to follow the usual recommendations: staying indoors during the hottest periods, wearing light clothing, and ensuring access to cooling facilities. The coming days will test Spain’s resilience and preparedness, as it navigates the dual threats of scorching heat and the heightened risk of wildfires.
