Latvia’s pro-European ruling party wins election as populists gain ground

Latvia’s United List Secures Clear Parliamentary Victory

Usagevpn.com – Latvia’s political direction toward Europe and continued support for Ukraine has been reinforced after Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ centre-right United List won the country’s parliamentary election with a commanding lead.

With more than 99.9% of ballots counted, United List had received 35.4% of the vote. The outcome gives the party 42 seats in Latvia’s 100-member parliament, an unprecedented result in the country’s post-independence era.

Kulbergs, who took office as prime minister in May, said the scale of the victory exceeded expectations and reflected the trend indicated by exit polling. He framed the result as a public demand for a different economic outlook and greater confidence in the years ahead.

“That means people truly want change,” Kulbergs said.

“Economic growth” and “a future for (Latvia’s) children.”

A mandate shaped by security and economic pressures

The election took place amid sustained concern over national security, household costs and Latvia’s longer-term demographic challenges. More than four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the conflict remains a defining issue for Latvian voters and political leaders.

Latvia, a Baltic country on the European Union’s external border and a NATO member since 2004, views Russia as its principal security risk. Its governments have substantially increased defence spending in response to the war in neighbouring Ukraine, while most parties expected to enter parliament favour both high military expenditure and continued assistance for Kyiv.

Kulbergs stressed that Latvia’s role on Europe’s eastern frontier requires both military preparedness and economic resilience.

“Because we are the external border of Europe, we must have a strong economy… a strong border region,” Kulbergs said. “That is the main task.”

For many voters, security concerns were accompanied by more immediate pressures. Rising prices, relatively low wages, strains on healthcare services and a continuing decline in population featured prominently during the campaign. The result gives United List a strong mandate, but also places responsibility on the party to address those domestic concerns while maintaining Latvia’s international commitments.

Coalition negotiations likely to reshape government

Although United List emerged as the clear winner, its existing governing alliance is not expected to continue unchanged. Pre-election surveys had pointed to a weaker showing for the coalition as a whole, and the final result left one current partner facing the loss of all parliamentary representation while others performed below their hopes.

The composition of Latvia’s next government will therefore depend on negotiations among parties that broadly share support for European integration, NATO membership, defence spending and aid to Ukraine. United List’s 42 seats leave it short of an outright majority, making coalition-building essential despite its historic result.

The election also demonstrated that voters were prepared to support parties promising more direct responses to economic insecurity, particularly where concerns over living costs and public services have intensified.

Populist parties make significant gains

Two populist forces performed strongly. Latvia First, a conservative party led by a property magnate frequently compared with US President Donald Trump, was on course to take second place.

Sovereign Power, which focused much of its campaign on cost-of-living pressures, appeared set to finish third. Unlike the other major parties expected to enter parliament, Sovereign Power opposes military assistance for Ukraine and rejects further increases in defence spending.

Its opponents have described the party as pro-Russian, and most leading political groups have ruled out cooperation with it. That stance could limit Sovereign Power’s role in the formation of the next government even if it secures a substantial parliamentary presence.

The populist advance was linked in part to changing voting behaviour among Latvia’s Russian-speaking minority, which accounts for roughly one-third of the population. For years, many of those voters backed Harmony, a party widely regarded as pro-Russian and once Latvia’s largest political force.

Harmony’s position deteriorated sharply at the previous election, held shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The party lost all of its seats in parliament, creating an opening for other parties seeking support from Russian-speaking voters. The latest result suggests that this electorate is no longer concentrated behind a single political vehicle.

What the result means for Latvia

United List’s victory points to continuity in Latvia’s strategic orientation: close alignment with the European Union and NATO, increased attention to border security, and ongoing backing for Ukraine. At the same time, the election has produced a more politically varied parliament, with populist parties gaining support by emphasising economic anxieties and dissatisfaction with public services.

The next phase will centre on whether Kulbergs can build a stable governing majority while responding to the social and economic concerns that shaped the campaign. His party’s record-breaking seat total gives him a strong starting point, but Latvia’s fragmented political landscape means that the durability of the next coalition will matter as much as the scale of the election win.