As former Nato chief warns about defence spending, how much has the military shrunk?
As Former NATO Chief Warns About Defence Spending, How Much Has the UK Military Shrunk?
UK Military Size Declines Since 1990
Lord Robertson, who oversaw the recent Strategic Defence Review (SDR), has raised concerns about the UK’s security being placed at risk due to insufficient investment. The former Labour defence secretary and NATO secretary general emphasized that the country cannot rely on expanding welfare budgets to maintain its military strength.
Comparisons from 1990 reveal a significant reduction in military personnel. The UK army, which once had 153,000 regular troops, now stands at 73,790. The 2025 SDR suggested the regular force should not fall below 73,000, yet applications for enlistment have dropped by nearly 40% in 2025 compared to 2024.
The Royal Navy has also seen a decline, shrinking from 48 major combat ships in 1990 to 11 frigates and 6 destroyers. Meanwhile, the RAF’s combat jet fleet has decreased from over 300 to a mix of 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and at least 37 F-35 Lightning II aircraft, though these newer models are more advanced than their predecessors.
Defense Spending and Welfare Budget Dispute
Lord Robertson’s critique highlights the disparity between defence and welfare funding. In the mid-1980s, defence spending was lower than social benefits, but this trend has reversed. By the end of the decade, welfare costs are expected to reach 4.3% of GDP, driven in part by increased claims for Personal Independence Payments (PIP).
“We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget.”
Despite the government’s claim of a “largest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War,” analysts argue this is a modest goal given the long-term decline in defence funding. The current target is 2.5% of GDP by April 2027, with an ambition to reach 3% in the next Parliament.
Procurement Challenges and Project Delays
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) manages some of the largest procurement projects in the UK government, including 47 out of 213 listed in the Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP) for 2024-25. However, progress on 12 of these projects has been rated “Red,” indicating their successful completion seems unlikely.
According to the National Audit Office (NAO), the MoD takes an average of six and a half years to award contracts for projects exceeding £20 million. This delay has sparked criticism over the department’s efficiency. The 2025 SDR recommended a “segmented approach” to speed up procurement, aiming to deliver contracts within two years.
Global Spending Context and Future Goals
While the UK’s defence spending of 2.3% of GDP in 2025 places it near the middle of NATO members, it trails behind countries like Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, which spent over 3.5% of GDP. The government has pledged to meet a NATO target of 5% GDP on “national security” by 2035, split between core defence (3.5%) and initiatives like infrastructure protection and civil preparedness.