Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play
Lebanon Engages Israel in Talks Amid Persistent Conflict
Amid escalating tensions, Lebanon finds itself once again caught in a conflict with Israel. During a recent visit to the Baabda Palace, a modernist structure perched atop a hill above Beirut, I met with President Joseph Aoun in August. Aoun, a retired military leader, assumed office following a brutal war between Israel and Hezbollah, a Shia Muslim political and military group backed by Iran. At that time, Hezbollah had suffered significant setbacks and was geographically isolated, prompting Aoun to pledge its disarmament. However, the persistent dispute over Hezbollah’s arms has long fractured Lebanon’s unity, and Aoun believed he could bridge this divide.
“I was born an optimist,” Aoun remarked, reflecting his resolve to mend the country’s fractured state.
The fragile ceasefire established in November 2024 ended hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, yet the Israeli military continued its near-daily strikes on areas linked to the group. In some regions, the fighting never ceased, and from my vantage point in east Beirut, I could still hear the hum of Israeli drones overhead. For Hezbollah’s backers, the group remains a vital shield against perceived Israeli aggression, while critics argue it prioritizes Iran’s geopolitical goals, drawing Lebanon into unwelcome conflicts.
The Israeli bombardment of Tehran in February, which claimed the life of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian supreme leader, triggered a retaliatory rocket strike from Hezbollah. The group framed this as a response to both the assassination and the ongoing Israeli aerial assaults during the ceasefire. Israel then launched a new ground invasion, intensifying its pressure on Lebanon. President Aoun, seeking to halt the violence, proposed direct negotiations with Israel, a bold move for two nations with no formal recognition.
Despite this initiative, Israel delayed until last week, when the US brokered a ceasefire with Iran, and the Israeli air strikes killed over 300 Lebanese in a single day. A scheduled meeting between ambassadors in Washington aims to address the ceasefire, yet Aoun faces a critical challenge: Hezbollah’s refusal to cede its weapons. The group, which traces its origins to the 1980s during Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon, has retained its arsenal despite the Taif Agreement of 1989, which called for the disarmament of all militias and a power-sharing system.
Hezbollah’s control extends beyond its military wing, influencing Beirut’s southern suburbs and the eastern Bekaa Valley, where some of its weapons are stored. Naim Qassem, its secretary-general, has rejected nationwide disarmament, leaving Aoun to weigh the risks of unilateral action. “We can’t let the country descend into another civil war,” Aoun cautioned during our August conversation, highlighting the delicate balance he must maintain. With Hezbollah’s entrenched power and Israel’s relentless attacks, the path to enduring peace remains uncertain.