Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?
Can Statistics Aid in Predicting the Grand National Winner?
The Grand National, a staple of the British horse racing calendar, will take place on Saturday, 11 April 2026, at Aintree. With 34 competitors vying for victory, the race is often seen as a gamble, where even the most seasoned bettors can find themselves on uncertain footing.
Historical Odds and Winning Trends
Since 2000, the Grand National has had 25 renewals, excluding the 2020 edition due to the pandemic. Tiger Roll’s 2019 triumph at 4-1 odds marked the last back-to-back victory since Red Rum’s dominance in the 1970s. In contrast, Mon Mome’s 100-1 win in 2009 and Nick Rockett’s 33-1 success in 2025 highlight the unpredictability of the event.
The average price of the winner over the past 25 years has hovered around 24-1, yet eight champions have been priced at 33-1 or higher. However, in the last decade, the average dropped to 11-1 or lower on five occasions, suggesting a slight shift in betting patterns.
In short, no.
Weight and Performance Patterns
Winners from the last 25 races have carried between 10st 3lb and 11st 9lb, with the average weight tipping the scales at 10st 12lb to 10st 13lb. Notably, 11st 6lb has been the most successful weight, yielding three victories. This data could help narrow down contenders, though the current top six in the field may still be viable options.
Since 2014, no horse aged 10 or older has claimed the title. However, Noble Yeats broke this trend in 2022, becoming the first seven-year-old winner since Bogskar in 1940. Over the past decade, six eight-year-olds and three nine-year-olds have triumphed, reinforcing the idea that younger horses might have an edge.
Trainers and Jockeys in Focus
Willie Mullins, the leading trainer of the last two champions, has seen his first victories since 2005 with these wins. Gordon Elliott, who trained Tiger Roll to back-to-back triumphs, also has a strong track record, with four top-five finishes in the past decade. Henry de Bromhead, who won in 2021, has contributed two top-three placements in recent years. Together, these three trainers will guide 16 of the 34 runners in 2026.
Jockeys, too, play a critical role. Paul Townend, who secured a place in 2024, has opted for I Am Maximum in this year’s race. Jack Kennedy, Mark Walsh, and Danny Mullins have each reached the top five on multiple occasions, underscoring the importance of rider experience.
Handicapper Ratings and Key Insights
Handicapper assessments provide a numerical rating for each horse’s performance level. Fourteen of the past 16 champions have been rated 146 or above, with 13 falling within the 146-160 range. I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett, both rated highly, are among the frontrunners this year.