How depleted weapons stockpiles could affect the Iran conflict
How Depleted Weapons Stockpiles Could Affect the Iran Conflict
Donald Trump, the U.S. President, asserts that his nation possesses an almost boundless stock of critical weaponry. Meanwhile, Iran’s defense ministry maintains that its country is equipped to withstand opposing forces for a longer duration than initially anticipated by the United States. While the volume of arms alone may not determine the conflict’s resolution, it is a pivotal element in shaping the battle’s trajectory.
From the outset, the pace of combat has been relentless. Both sides are exhausting their arsenal at a rate exceeding production capabilities. The Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) reports that the U.S. and Israel have executed over 2,000 strikes, each involving multiple munitions. Iran, in turn, has launched 571 missiles and 1,391 drones, though many have been intercepted. As the conflict extends, sustaining this level of intensity will grow increasingly challenging.
“The number of missiles Iran is firing has decreased significantly—dropping from hundreds on the first day to just dozens now,” said a Western official.
Before the war, estimates suggested Iran held more than 2,000 short-range ballistic missiles. However, no military openly reveals exact weapon counts, as these details are classified to maintain strategic advantage. General Dan Caine noted a 86% decline in Iran’s missile launches since the fighting began on Saturday. In the past 24 hours alone, Centcom reported a 23% reduction. This marks a shift in Iran’s operational capacity.
Iran had previously mass-produced tens of thousands of Shahed drones, which it later shared with Russia. The technology has been pivotal in Ukraine, where Russia employs its adapted version with notable success. The U.S. has also replicated the design, yet Caine observed a 73% drop in drone attacks since the conflict started. This may signal a tactical adjustment, but production challenges are expected to escalate.
With U.S. and Israeli jets now holding air dominance over Iran, the nation’s air defenses have suffered substantial damage. Its air force is no longer considered a credible threat. Centcom projects the next stage of the war will target Iran’s missile and drone launch sites, along with its weapon caches and manufacturing facilities. This could enable the U.S. and Israel to significantly weaken Iran’s ability to retaliate, though complete destruction of its stockpiles may prove difficult.
Iran spans an area three times larger than France, allowing its weapons to remain concealed from aerial detection. Historical precedents, such as Israel’s prolonged bombing of Gaza and the U.S. campaign in Yemen, highlight the limitations of air-based warfare. Despite its global military supremacy, the U.S. relies heavily on costly precision-guided weapons, which are produced in limited quantities. Trump is reportedly planning a meeting with defense contractors to accelerate production, indicating potential strain on American resources.
Caine mentioned the U.S. has transitioned from using “stand-off weapons”—costlier, long-range systems like Tomahawk cruise missiles—to more economical “stand-in” weapons such as JDAM bombs. These can be deployed at closer distances, reducing logistical demands. Mark Cancian, a former U.S. Marine colonel at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), noted that the U.S. could maintain this level of engagement for an extended period. However, as the war continues, the number of viable targets diminishes, leading to a gradual easing of combat operations.
“The U.S. has access to tens of thousands of JDAM bombs, but expensive air defense systems are in shorter supply,” Cancian added. “These systems were crucial in countering Iranian retaliation during the early stages of the conflict.”