Death of Ali Larijani deepens crisis at heart of Iran’s leadership
Death of Ali Larijani deepens crisis at heart of Iran’s leadership
The Israeli attack that killed Iran’s top security official, Ali Larijani, has removed a pivotal strategist from the Islamic Republic at a decisive juncture. Though not a military leader, Larijani played a central role in steering Iran’s foreign and defense policies. As head of the Supreme National Security Council, he oversaw decisions on war, alliances, and security strategies, his counsel shaping the nation’s response to global tensions.
Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 28 February, Larijani had emphasized Iran’s readiness for an extended conflict. His demise, confirmed by state media, occurs amid a series of targeted killings of high-ranking officials and military leaders in recent weeks. This trend hints at an ongoing strategy to destabilize the leadership during wartime.
Despite his firm opposition to Western powers, Larijani was internally regarded as a balanced thinker. He merged ideological commitment with a data-driven approach, favoring strategic calculations over emotional rhetoric. While maintaining a critical view of Western engagement, he engaged in key diplomatic initiatives, such as negotiations with China on long-term agreements.
Three Crises Under His Oversight
At the time of his death, Larijani was navigating three pressing challenges. The first involved the ongoing war, where he advocated for a regional escalation, including closing the Strait of Hormuz. The second was domestic unrest, which began with economic frustrations but evolved into widespread protests demanding regime change. The third centered on Iran’s nuclear program and stalled talks with Washington, both disrupted by military strikes.
His removal leaves critical issues unresolved, placing them in the hands of an uncertain successor. Iran’s resilience, demonstrated through its impact on global oil markets, does not fully offset the risk of continued attacks on its airspace. Any new leader may face immediate threats, potentially shifting authority toward the military.
President Masoud Pezeshkian’s recent statements suggest armed forces have been empowered to act independently if senior leaders are incapacitated. This could expedite decisions but reduce central coordination. The leadership’s struggle with succession is evident in delayed public announcements and the discreet presence of figures like Mojtaba Khamenei, the new supreme leader.
Short-term, the situation is expected to grow more volatile: a tougher military stance abroad and stricter control at home. Over time, the repeated loss of key leaders may strain the system’s ability to function effectively, particularly in a country with over 90 million people. Larijani’s death symbolizes more than an individual loss—it intensifies a leadership struggle that could reshape the Islamic Republic’s trajectory and stability.