Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?

Sustaining the US-Iran Conflict: A Test of Military Resilience?

Despite assurances from top U.S. officials, the prospect of a prolonged war with Iran has raised questions about the country’s ability to maintain its military campaign. President Donald Trump claimed the U.S. possesses a “virtually unlimited” supply of weapons, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth asserted that Iran has “no hope” of outlasting American forces. Yet, concerns persist over the availability of high-grade munitions, particularly defensive systems, as the conflict intensifies.

Operation Epic Fury, initiated on February 28, marked the beginning of a significant escalation. In the following days, the U.S. launched thousands of attacks across Iran, utilizing over 20 weapon systems across air, land, and sea. The first phase of strikes saw the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, prompting a rapid response from Tehran. However, Trump’s initial timeline of four to five weeks for the war has been overshadowed by his acknowledgment of the U.S. military’s capacity to extend the operation indefinitely.

Cost Efficiency and Weapon Stockpiles

While the U.S. boasts extensive munitions reserves, the financial and logistical demands of high-grade weaponry are growing. During a visit to U.S. Central Command on March 5, Hegseth reassured that “our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as we need.” General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, echoed this sentiment, stating that “sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand” are available.

“The cost of operating the fighter for an hour is equivalent to the cost of a Shahed,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center. “It’s not efficient. It’s not a favorable cost exchange.”

Grieco highlighted that while the U.S. can manage shorter-range weapons like bombs and Hellfire missiles, the use of high-grade missiles such as the Patriot system presents a different challenge. These advanced interceptors, priced at around $3 million each, are critical for countering Iran’s ballistic missiles. According to Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stocks are depleting rapidly. “At the beginning, I think there were about 1,000 Patriots, and we’ve chewed into that inventory quite a bit now,” he noted, estimating that 200-300 missiles have already been deployed.

Lockheed Martin, a key supplier, delivered just 620 PAC-3 interceptors in 2025, underscoring the time required to replenish critical defenses. “If you went to the company today and asked for one more Patriot, it would take at least two years for that missile to be produced,” Cancian explained. In contrast, shorter-range systems like JDAM kits and Hellfire missiles appear more sustainable, as the U.S. has ample reserves to support extended operations.

On March 6, Trump met with defense manufacturers, announcing plans to boost production of top-tier weaponry. The White House emphasized that the meeting had been planned for weeks, but Grieco questioned its significance. “I found that to be like a non-announcement because in the last months most of these had already been announced,” she remarked. The challenge now lies in whether the U.S. can rapidly scale up its capabilities without compromising operational efficiency.