A free Iran is their shared dream. But the diaspora remains torn on the best path forward.
A Free Iran Is Their Shared Dream. But the Diaspora Remains Torn on the Best Path Forward
In Los Angeles, two contrasting demonstrations emerged last weekend. On one side, a group of Iranian Americans gathered near City Hall, urging an end to the escalating conflict in their homeland. They voiced chants like “Stop the war in Iran” and “We the people don’t want war.” On the other, in the Westside neighborhood of “Tehrangeles,” the same diaspora community celebrated what they saw as a potential turning point for regime change. With American, Israeli, and Iranian flags waving, they danced to upbeat music and rejoiced at the news of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in U.S.-Israeli strikes.
A Nation Divided by Vision
The emotional divide within the Iranian diaspora has grown sharper in recent days, reflecting deeper tensions as the Middle East’s violence intensifies. For those who fled the theocratic regime after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the conflict has stirred both hope and fear. Abbas Milani, a Stanford University Iranian studies director, noted that some Iranians are “so aggrieved at this regime that they say, ‘At any cost, come and destroy this regime even if it means destroying parts of the country.’” Others, however, seek to oust the government without sacrificing the country’s stability.
“The images of destruction and the very joyous support some give to the idea of war have become a source of more tension than we normally get in the diaspora. It will get harder before it dissipates.”
Previously, the diaspora appeared more unified in backing Iranians resisting the government’s harsh policies. Yet now, differing views on the war’s role in toppling the regime have fractured the community. Online discussions have heated up since the strikes, with supporters of military action labeled as “Zionists”—a term that gained negative connotations after Hamas’s attacks on Israel in October 2023. Anti-war voices, meanwhile, are accused of being pro-regime.
Amid the chaos, Iranians also debate who should lead if the current government collapses. Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last shah, is a favored candidate for some, while others remain cautious about reuniting the monarchy with power. The situation is compounded by Iran’s internet blackout, which has isolated families and amplified uncertainty. Nowruz, the Persian New Year, looms as a time of renewal, but rumors of Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei’s son, taking over as supreme leader add to the unease.
Leadership and Public Opinion
Analysts suggest the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may consolidate its influence if the conflict continues. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has expressed a desire to remove Iran’s leadership entirely, hinting at names for a “good leader.” However, a recent NBC News poll reveals Americans largely disapprove of his approach to the crisis. Fifty-four percent of potential voters oppose his military involvement, a split that mirrors divisions within the Iranian diaspora.
“We are not a monolith,” the Iranian Diaspora Collective wrote on Instagram. “Millions of people will never share the same ideology or identity, and that plurality is the strength of any free society.”
Last year, the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) and YouGov surveyed Iranian Americans, finding 53% opposed U.S. military action against Iran. (Jamal Abdi, NIAC’s president, mentioned a new poll will release updated results next week.) For some, like Los Angeles-based pastor Ara Torosian, the war’s devastation is a stark reminder of past struggles. A Christian who moved to the U.S. in 2010, Torosian described the destruction of historic sites and the loss of innocent lives—especially children—as deeply painful. Yet he acknowledged that this suffering now outweighs decades of oppression faced by dissidents under the regime.
Torosian, who was jailed and beaten for hiding Christian items in his Tehran home, felt relief at Khamenei’s death. “This is not just a victory for the people,” he said. “It’s a step toward justice.” But the path forward remains unclear, with the diaspora’s unity now a distant memory in favor of competing visions for Iran’s future.