Global Alcohol Consumption to Decline Through 2031, According to IWSR Forecast
People to drink less booze but only – According to a recent report by the IWSR, a leading global alcohol market research firm, the volume of alcohol consumed worldwide is expected to decrease until 2031. This trend is primarily driven by consumers in traditional drinking markets like Europe, North America, and China, who are projected to reduce their intake over the next five years. The report outlines a 10-year forecast covering 160 markets, highlighting a shift in drinking behavior that could reshape the industry significantly.
Decline in Spirits, Beer, and Wine
The IWSR analysis indicates that the consumption of spirits, beer, and wine has already dropped by 2% between 2024 and 2025. This decline is anticipated to persist in the coming years, with the forecast suggesting that total volumes will continue to fall after 2031. The firm emphasizes that this pattern reflects a broader movement toward moderation in alcohol consumption, influenced by health consciousness, economic factors, and changing lifestyle priorities.
By 2035, the report predicts that global alcohol consumption will remain 1% lower than it was in 2025, despite a 9% increase in the number of legal drinking-age consumers. This means that even with a growing population of people able to drink, the overall demand for alcohol is expected to stabilize or shrink. The per-capita consumption of pure alcohol is forecast to decrease by approximately half a liter annually—equivalent to two standard bottles of spirits—over the next decade. Such a reduction underscores a gradual but measurable shift in consumer preferences toward lighter drinking habits.
Regional Variations in Consumption Trends
The decline in alcohol consumption is not uniform across all regions. In major traditional markets, the drop is particularly steep. China and the United States are expected to see nearly 20% reductions in their alcohol consumption by 2035, while Germany and the United Kingdom are projected to experience 14% and 13% declines respectively. Japan, too, is forecast to witness a 15% decrease in alcohol intake. These figures reflect the combined impact of aging populations, rising health awareness, and economic pressures that are influencing consumer choices.
Conversely, emerging markets are poised to drive strong growth in alcohol demand. India is highlighted as a key player, likely surpassing China as the largest contributor to global consumption. Other countries such as Mexico, Vietnam, and Colombia are also expected to see substantial increases. The report projects that Mexico’s alcohol consumption will rise by 13%, Vietnam by 15%, Colombia by 26%, and India by a notable 38% between 2025 and 2035. This divergence in trends highlights the evolving dynamics of the global alcohol market, with traditional markets slowing down while new regions gain momentum.
Category-Specific Market Shifts
The IWSR forecast also breaks down the trends by alcohol category. Wine consumption is expected to decline by 14% globally from 2025 to 2035, spirits by 2%, and beer volumes by around 1%. However, the market is witnessing a surge in ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages, such as premixed cocktails, which are projected to grow by 17% over the same period. This growth suggests a growing preference for convenience and pre-prepared drinks, which aligns with changing consumer lifestyles and the increasing popularity of on-the-go consumption.
“Global RTD consumption reached 1 billion 9-liter cases for the first time in 2025, and there is no sign of this trend abating anytime soon,” said Luke Tegner, IWSR Head of Consulting. His statement highlights the rapid adoption of RTD products as a viable alternative to traditional alcoholic beverages. The firm attributes this growth to factors such as busy schedules, health trends, and the appeal of low-effort drinking options. As a result, RTD is becoming a major force in the alcohol industry, potentially challenging the dominance of spirits and beer in the coming years.
Implications for the Future of the Alcohol Industry
“2035 will be a vastly different market landscape than the one we see today,” noted Marten Lodewijks, President and Managing Director of IWSR. His remark underscores the transformative nature of the forecast, which suggests a reconfiguration of the global alcohol market. Traditional markets, once the backbone of consumption, are slowing their pace, while emerging economies are accelerating their growth. This transition could lead to a reallocation of resources and marketing strategies, with companies needing to adapt to shifting preferences.
The report also identifies the need for industry stakeholders to anticipate these changes. For instance, the decline in spirits and beer might prompt producers to focus on innovation or diversify their product offerings. Meanwhile, the rise of RTD beverages indicates an opportunity for brands to cater to consumers seeking convenience without compromising on quality or taste. The challenge for the market will be to balance these trends while meeting the evolving demands of a global consumer base.
Looking ahead, the IWSR’s 10-year forecast serves as a critical guide for policymakers, businesses, and health organizations. The decline in alcohol consumption, particularly in traditional markets, could have far-reaching effects, including reduced alcohol-related health risks and potential economic implications for
