‘We can halt warming – and we must’: IPCC scientist on why Europe keeps choosing fossil fuels
We can halt warming – and we must: IPCC scientist on Europe’s fossil fuel dependency
We can halt warming - Hungary’s recent election of Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party in April has sparked optimism about a renewed commitment to environmental sustainability and climate action. This shift is already yielding results, as the nation has established the Ministry for the Living Environment this month. For the first time in 16 years, the focus will prioritize nature preservation, soil restoration, and animal welfare as central pillars of policy. Diána Ürge-Vorsatz, a renowned climate researcher at CEU and vice-chair of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), notes that the scientific community in Hungary has greeted this development with enthusiasm. “The creation of a ministry dedicated to the living environment represents a critical step forward,” she explains to Euronews.
While the new administration has set ambitious environmental goals, several challenges remain. Restoring degraded wetlands, transitioning agricultural methods, and protecting forest ecosystems are issues that still require urgent attention. Ürge-Vorsatz emphasizes that progress hinges not only on government action but also on public engagement. “Environmental experts are cautiously optimistic, but the effectiveness of any strategy will depend on everyday citizens,” she states. This underscores the importance of balancing long-term vision with immediate, community-driven efforts.
Energy Crises and the Fossil Fuel Paradox
Europe’s reliance on fossil fuels has been exacerbated by recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the soaring energy prices tied to conflicts in Iran. These tensions have highlighted the continent’s vulnerability to energy supply disruptions, prompting some nations to accelerate their investments in domestic renewable energy. However, Ürge-Vorsatz argues that this response is often reactive rather than transformative. “This is the third energy crisis in a decade, following the post-pandemic recovery and the Ukraine invasion,” she says. “It’s a clear indication that we’re over-relying on centralized energy sources when viable alternatives are available.”
The IPCC scientist points out that while renewable energy adoption has gained momentum, the transition is uneven. Alternatives for oil-based transportation and gas-driven heating are emerging, but the energy-intensive sectors of industry and manufacturing present a greater challenge. “Decarbonizing industry is more complex, yet it remains essential,” she adds. The key issue, she suggests, lies in how governments prioritize short-term solutions during crises. Instead of implementing lasting reforms, many opt for temporary measures that reinforce fossil fuel dependence in the long run.
Climate Impacts in Hungary and Beyond
Europe, as a whole, is experiencing rapid temperature increases, with Copernicus data revealing that it is the fastest-warming continent on Earth. The rate of heating is twice the global average, and Hungary, in particular, is warming at an even more accelerated pace. Ürge-Vorsatz warns that this trend is already causing severe consequences, including record-breaking heat waves in cities like Budapest. “We’ve already warmed significantly, and sooner or later, Budapest will see temperatures of 50 degrees Celsius,” she predicts. “The question isn’t whether it will happen, but when.”
The city’s Chief Landscape Architect has previously cautioned that young trees may struggle to survive in the face of extreme heat and prolonged droughts. This highlights the broader struggle between climate adaptation and mitigation. While measures like air-conditioned public spaces, dubbed “climate shelters,” are being introduced across Europe, Ürge-Vorsatz argues they only address surface-level symptoms. “These solutions offer temporary relief but fail to tackle the root cause,” she says. The real driver of climate change remains the emissions generated by burning fossil fuels, a problem compounded by the urban heat island effect.
The urban heat island effect amplifies the impact of global warming, as cities can be up to 10 degrees Celsius hotter than surrounding rural areas. Ürge-Vorsatz highlights the critical role of trees in mitigating this effect, noting that their natural cooling process through transpiration is unmatched by artificial alternatives. “Trees are one of the most powerful tools we have,” she explains. “They not only lower temperatures but also improve air quality and support biodiversity.” Combining urban greening with modern architecture and improved insulation, she argues, could significantly reduce the need for energy-intensive air conditioning and ease the strain on energy systems during heatwaves.
Policy Shortcomings and Industry Resistance
Ürge-Vorsatz criticizes the way governments respond to energy crises, often prioritizing quick fixes over systemic change. “Instead of taking the time to rethink our dependence on fossil fuels, we implement temporary solutions that lock us into the same cycle,” she says. This pattern is evident in policies that favor securing energy imports over investing in sustainable alternatives. While some countries are shifting toward renewables, the fossil fuel industry continues to thrive due to its profitability during price surges.
“When energy prices spike, consumers suffer, but fossil fuel companies see record profits,” Ürge-Vorsatz explains. “This creates a feedback loop where the industry has little incentive to transition to cleaner energy sources.” She adds that the consequences of this inaction are already visible. In Budapest, heat records are expected again this summer, a direct outcome of decades of emissions from fossil fuels. “The city’s climate is changing rapidly, and the effects are no longer abstract,” she says. “We’re seeing the results in the form of higher temperatures and water scarcity, which threaten both ecosystems and human livelihoods.”
The scientist also underscores the limits of adaptation strategies. “No matter how much we adjust, we’ll eventually reach a point where our efforts can’t keep up with the pace of warming,” she warns. This is especially concerning for regions dependent on water resources and agricultural systems, which are increasingly strained by rising temperatures. “The way we’ve managed our forests, soils, and water reserves has contributed to the severity of these challenges,” she adds. “We need to rethink not just our energy policies, but our entire approach to sustainability.”
As Europe grapples with the dual threats of energy insecurity and climate change, Ürge-Vorsatz’s insights offer a call to action. While Hungary’s new environmental ministry is a promising development, she stresses that meaningful progress requires sustained political will and public support. “We have the knowledge and tools to halt warming, but we must act decisively before it’s too late,” she concludes. The urgency of the climate crisis demands more than temporary measures—it requires a fundamental transformation of how societies produce and consume energy.