Spain prepares for heatwave: temperatures up to 44C by Tuesday

Spain Readies for Severe Heatwave: Temperatures Could Hit 44°C by Tuesday

Spain prepares for heatwave - AEMET, Spain's national weather service, launched an alert last Friday regarding the imminent arrival of the second heatwave of the 2026 summer. This extreme weather event is set to begin this Sunday, with temperatures in certain regions of mainland Spain expected to soar to 42°C in river valleys of the south-western quadrant. The forecast indicates that this heatwave will persist through at least Tuesday, posing a significant challenge to both residents and emergency services.

Regional Temperature Projections and Variations

According to AEMET's data, by Monday, temperatures in the Miño valley could reach 38–40°C, while inland A Coruña might experience 37–39°C. The southern region of the country will see maximum temperatures ranging from 39–41°C, with river valleys potentially hitting 42°C. The southern plateau, the Ebro valley, and the north-eastern depressions are projected to remain within 37–40°C. However, the most intense heat will be concentrated in the south-western quadrant, where the highest risk is anticipated.

Interestingly, the peak of the heatwave is not expected to occur on Tuesday. Instead, Monday 6 is forecast to be the hottest day of the event, with further temperature increases anticipated along the eastern Cantabrian coast. These rising temperatures could spread to the Ebro valley, the northern plateau, and the eastern third of the Iberian Peninsula, with the possibility of reaching 44°C by Tuesday. This scenario could exacerbate ongoing wildfires, such as the Bisbal d'Empordà fire, which is already under scrutiny.

"The first heatwave, which began to subside shortly after June, was estimated to have caused nearly 900 deaths in the country, according to the MoMo mortality monitoring system of the Ministry of Health,"

As the heatwave intensifies, the risk of forest fires is expected to rise. In Andalusia, the INFOCA wildfire plan is currently in pre-alert status, while the Canary Islands have already declared an alert for fire risk on Gran Canaria and Tenerife. This warning is in place due to a prolonged period of high temperatures that will last several days. By Tuesday, the entire eastern province of the Canary Islands is projected to shift to orange alert, with the rest of the islands maintaining a yellow status.

Uncertainty with the Arrival of the 'Dana' System

The weather outlook becomes more complex with the potential influence of a high-altitude cut-off low pressure system, known as a 'dana.' This phenomenon could affect the weather patterns on Wednesday, introducing greater uncertainty. Despite this, the most likely scenario suggests that temperatures will remain above 39–40°C in the south-west, the southern plateau, the Ebro valley, and parts of the south-eastern interior. AEMET warns that temperatures will start to decline from Thursday onwards, though the heatwave’s effects will still be felt in certain areas.

Public health experts emphasize that the threat of extreme heat extends beyond daytime maximums. Minimum temperatures are predicted to hover around 20–26°C, with nighttime peaks reaching 27–28°C. This creates conditions for tropical nights across much of the country, making it difficult for people in the most affected regions to rest adequately. Such conditions are as critical as the daytime temperatures when assessing the overall health impact.

Heatwave Criteria and Broader Impacts

For an event to be officially classified as a heatwave, AEMET requires it to exceed the 95th percentile of temperatures significantly, last at least three days, and affect more than 10% of the territory. Current projections indicate that these three conditions are highly likely to be met, marking the second major heatwave of the summer. The impact of the first heatwave, which was recorded in June, continues to influence the current debate about the severity of the situation.

The first heatwave of the year, which had already begun to wane, was linked to nearly 900 deaths in June, as per the Ministry of Health's MoMo mortality monitoring system. This underscores the growing concern about heat-related health risks, particularly as the second heatwave approaches. The extended period of high temperatures, combined with the threat of wildfires, has placed additional strain on emergency services and communities across Spain.

While the Canary Islands are often shielded from the worst effects of mainland heatwaves, they are not immune this time. The regional government’s Directorate-General for Emergencies has issued a fire risk alert for Gran Canaria and Tenerife starting this Sunday. This warning is accompanied by the heatwave forecast, highlighting the interconnected nature of weather and environmental hazards. Meanwhile, the Balearic Islands are expected to see temperatures between 36°C and 38°C, with the highest risk zones identified as the south-western quadrant of the mainland, the Guadiana and Guadalquivir valleys, the Ebro valley, and the north-eastern depressions.

At the national level, AEMET’s heatwave map is dynamic, continuously updating as weather models evolve. While the final distribution of warning levels across provinces has not yet been confirmed, orange alerts have been issued for the south-west of mainland Spain, the Ebro valley, and the eastern Canary Islands. Yellow alerts cover a broader area surrounding these zones, indicating a wide-ranging but less severe risk. This approach allows for real-time adjustments, ensuring that the most vulnerable regions receive timely warnings.

The combination of prolonged heat and the risk of wildfires has prompted a multifaceted response from authorities. In Andalusia, the INFOCA wildfire plan is already in place, while the Canary Islands’ fire risk alerts are being monitored closely. The impact of these extreme conditions is not limited to the immediate weather; it also affects long-term discussions about climate resilience and emergency preparedness in Spain. As the heatwave progresses, the focus remains on mitigating its effects, particularly in regions where temperatures are projected to reach their peak.

With the heatwave expected to last through Tuesday, the challenge for Spain lies in balancing immediate relief measures with long-term strategies to address the increasing frequency of such events. The country is now in a critical phase, where both the population and infrastructure must adapt to the heightened risk of heat-related illnesses and wildfires. As AEMET continues to monitor the situation, the public is urged to stay informed and take precautions to ensure safety during this period of extreme weather.