Ratify Mercosur or risk losing South America to China, Uruguay warns EU

Ratify Mercosur or Risk Losing South America to China, Uruguay Warns EU

Ratify Mercosur or risk losing South - As the EU-Mercosur trade agreement teeters on the brink of finalization, Uruguay’s Foreign Minister, Mario Lubetkin, has issued a stark warning to European policymakers. He emphasized that the bloc must act decisively to secure its position in Latin America, or risk ceding strategic influence to China and other global competitors. During a recent visit to Brussels, Lubetkin highlighted the urgency of completing the ratification process, which he framed as a pivotal moment for transatlantic cooperation. The minister’s remarks underscore a growing concern that delays in the agreement could allow China to gain a stronger foothold in South American markets, undermining Europe’s long-standing economic and political ties with the region.

The Crucial Timeline and Political Hurdles

The EU-Mercosur pact, which took over two decades of negotiations to conclude, is now in its implementation phase. For the Mercosur nations, the deal was finalized with remarkable speed—four member states completed their ratification in just two months, a feat that has never been achieved before. Lubetkin noted that this rapid approval was driven by a shared recognition of the agreement’s strategic value, spanning both political spectrums. “Governments from the right and the left have united because we see this as a defining moment—not just for our country, but for the entire continent,” he stated.

“The four Mercosur countries ratified the agreement in just two months. That has never happened before.”

Despite this progress, the agreement faces significant hurdles in Europe. The European Parliament, which has emerged as the primary roadblock, has not yet granted its consent. In January 2026, the Parliament requested an opinion from the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) on the compatibility of the pact’s legal framework with EU treaties. This step has stalled the process, leaving the deal in limbo. The CJEU’s review could take over a year, meaning the full implementation of the agreement remains uncertain.

Lubetkin expressed confidence that the European Parliament will eventually approve the deal, though he acknowledged the timeline remains unclear. “I don’t know whether it will be in 2027 or 2028,” he said. “That is Europe’s decision. From our side, the process is finished.” The minister’s statement highlights the tension between the EU’s procedural delays and Uruguay’s eagerness to move forward. As the current rotating president of Mercosur, Montevideo has already initiated a series of measures to advance the partnership, even without final EU ratification.

Uruguay’s Proactive Approach

Instead of waiting for the EU to complete its ratification, Uruguay has chosen to take the lead. The country plans to host the first EU-Mercosur trade forum in December, aiming to solidify economic collaboration before the agreement officially comes into force. Lubetkin has also been in discussions with European Trade Commissioner officials to accelerate commercial ties, demonstrating a commitment to progress despite the political standoffs in Brussels.

“Our citizens cannot wait. They need concrete answers now.”

This forward-thinking strategy reflects Uruguay’s broader goal of positioning itself as a key player in the evolving global trade landscape. Lubetkin argued that the agreement has grown even more critical in recent years, as geopolitical rivalries increasingly shape international commerce. “Europe needs to think about which regions it can work with that share complementary strengths,” he said. “This is a win-win agreement.”

According to Lubetkin, the pact offers more than just access to European markets. It also opens the door to increased investment flows, stronger economic growth, and new job opportunities. “There is plenty of investment capacity in our region as well,” he added. “This goes in both directions.” While the trade pillar is already operating provisionally, the full agreement remains incomplete, leaving some aspects of the partnership unexplored.

Geopolitical Competition and Strategic Priorities

The urgency of the EU-Mercosur agreement comes amid rising competition from China, which has rapidly expanded its economic influence in South America. Over the past 14 years, China has become Uruguay’s largest trading partner, a shift that has raised concerns about Europe’s ability to retain its economic leverage. Yet, Lubetkin stressed that Uruguay’s relationship with China does not come at the expense of its partnerships with the EU or the United States. “We are not working with China against the United States,” he clarified. “We work with China, with the United States, and with the European Union.”

Uruguay’s approach to balancing trade relationships mirrors its broader foreign policy, which seeks to maintain partnerships with all major powers. Lubetkin dismissed suggestions that the country is caught between Washington and Beijing, emphasizing its proactive stance in fostering collaboration. “Our policy is positive, not against anyone,” he said. “We want to deepen business relations with all our partners.” This strategy is particularly important as Mercosur’s six-month presidency in Uruguay also includes plans to negotiate trade agreements with Canada, the United Arab Emirates, India, and to strengthen ties with ASEAN and African nations.

The minister’s warning to the EU is not merely about economic consequences but also about geopolitical positioning. If the bloc fails to ratify the agreement, he warned, the repercussions would be more profound for Europe than for Uruguay. “If Europe rejects this agreement, the consequences will be much greater for Europe than for us,” Lubetkin stated. This sentiment reflects a belief that the EU’s delayed action could allow China to dominate South American markets, particularly in sectors like agriculture and manufacturing, which are vital to the region’s economy.

Meanwhile, the EU’s hesitancy has sparked debates about its commitment to Latin America. Lubetkin pointed to the bloc’s reliance on European investment, which remains a cornerstone of Uruguay’s economic development. “Europe is still our biggest source of investment,” he noted, while acknowledging the U.S.’s dominance in services. The minister’s remarks highlight the complex dynamics at play, as the EU grapples with its own domestic priorities and the broader implications of its trade strategy.

As the Mercosur bloc moves forward, its success will depend on the EU’s ability to resolve the ratification process. Lubetkin’s call for action serves as a reminder that time is a critical factor in shaping the region’s future. The trade agreement, he argued, represents a bridge between Europe and South America, one that could foster mutual growth and prevent the continent from being overshadowed by rising powers. “We are not just looking for trade benefits,” he said. “We are seeking a partnership that aligns our interests and secures our collective future.”

In the coming months, Uruguay’s proactive approach may set a precedent for other Mercosur nations, who are watching closely to see how the bloc navigates its economic and political ambitions. The minister’s insistence on maintaining a balanced strategy—deepening ties with China, the U.S., and the EU—underscores a vision of South America as a dynamic hub of global commerce. Whether this vision materializes will hinge on the EU’s willingness to prioritize long-term partnerships over short-term political challenges.